2026 AUSTRALIAN DOMESTIC GAS OUTLOOK SPEECH, SYDNEY

Australian Domestic Gas Outlook 2026

1 April 2026

Sydney

Introduction 

Good morning,

I love Australia. Thought I’d tell you some of the things that I really love.

I love a perfect Lamington – not too big and soft. I love driving out into the country, into the bush and the quiet and the trees and the huge sky, and I love flying into Darwin and marvelling at the colour of the Arafura Sea, or just how sparkly and blue the harbour water is in Sydney.

I love that my doctor checks my high blood pressure with a machine made from critical minerals and hydro carbon and petro-chemicals, and then sends me to the chemist to get medicine that’s been made in a factory made of steel and with energy made from coal and gas.

I love driving up to Parliament House in Canberra and seeing a gorgeous Australian flag – made from petrochemicals.

I love so much about Australia – we are such a successful, wealthy country with choices.

Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, said the country that can’t feed itself, fuel itself, or defend itself has few options. We still have options.

When I look around the world, I see other countries that have made the wrong choices and are now working hard to rebuild for their people.

Argentina and Romania are two countries that, like Australia, are resources-rich, but chose to restrict that development with windfall taxes, reservations and interminable approvals.

So now I guess that leads me to things I hate – things that scare me, mostly. I hate anything that undermines Australia’s prosperity.

I hate that our young people think that they will not be as well off as we were, the first time that’s happened in generations. And I’m frightened that unchecked social media and anti-mining and fossil fuels campaigns spread misinformation.

And so last week, I opened my Minerals Week address with these words: “mining pays the bills for Australia.”

However, I should be more specific: mining, and drilling, pays the bills for Australia.

It is an unassailable truth that Australia’s resources sector is the backbone of our economy, our wealth, and our progress. It has been this way for generations.

I often speak enviously of the regional communities like Roma, Miles, Chinchilla; communities that were transformed by the investments of companies like yours.

Remembering that in 2000 the CSG development in Queensland was disregarded, the technology would never work, the aquifers would drop to unusable levels and many other bad things.  This was a campaign that failed.

In 2020 those western Queensland communities had vacant shops in the main street, closed businesses, and farmers and graziers struggling with low commodity prices and making tough decisions about being able to support their kids away to school and university.

Now, in 2026, the main street is buzzing, car parks full of new vehicles, small businesses growing and employing locals, and farming kids who have choices, to stay at home on a profitable farm business growing food or choose to be a teacher or doctor like Trevor and Gail’s family.

Places like Karratha, Gladstone, and Warrnambool; with economic growth built on the back of the indirect investment from the gas industry.

And most importantly, your industry has strengthened Australia’s position as a global energy superpower, and key energy supplier to our strategic partners.

Australia faces the most dangerous strategic environment since the Second World War.

As of yesterday there are 937 service stations across Australia that have no fuel, and that number is growing. This is not the first energy shock that Australia has seen. In the 1970s there were two, however thanks to the foresight of the Menzies government Australia had encouraged BHP and Exxon to drill the Bass Strait. So while we were buffeted by the macro headwinds, we did have fuel security in Australia.  In fact up to 2005, Australia had fuel self sufficiency.

Like the tree we plant today but may not live to see the outspread branches and sit in the shade, it is today that we have to turn our policy to be encouraging investment to drill and mine. Today we must ensure that we are approving new projects to guarantee energy security in Australia.

For all the renewable energy advocates in the room, I have no doubt that in the future our technology will continue to grow and develop but in my lifetime we will continue to use hydrocarbons and petrochemicals, for energy, for fuels, for plastic cannulas, and food packaging, for my thongs on the beach.

By comparison, the Albanese government did last summer. Well to be fair it has been a four year war on investment in oil, gas and coal.

• The intervention into the gas market on 15 December 2022,
• the floating of an east coast reservation
• changes to government financing legislation;
  • the Northern Australia Infrastructure fund,
  • the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act; and;
  • legislation to remove the ability of Export Finance Australia to lend to fossil fuel projects.

And now to float retrospective tax changes on our gas industry, at a time when our trade partners are calling for more Australian supply.

All of this culminates in increased uncertainty and instability for investors and businesses.

Instead of addressing the root causes of skyrocketing energy costs, unachievable emissions reduction legislation and unproductive industrial relations laws, Labor’s response thus far has been to throw cash at the problem and hope it disappears. Or to tax it.

PRRT 

Only Labor would use a crisis to levy more taxes.

The windfall gains that the government is receiving from every Australian who buys fuel is banked, and the government has seen another opportunity to follow the direction of anti-fossil fuel activists to tax export gas, further exposing the economy to greater investment risk.

Resources Minister Madeleine King last month said ‘that imposing new costs on the gas industry would freeze gas production in this country’.

Then, the Prime Minister completely undermined her position, with revelations his Department ordered Treasury modelling on “new levy options” on our gas industry.

What an astonishing difference in position between the Minister, and her leader. But, just last week in Question Time, Minister King was asked again about levying additional taxes on the gas industry.

Her response? “The Budget will be delivered in May and I’m not going to comment on any processes in the meantime.”

What an astonishing about-face. And what another blow to investment certainty under this Labor government.

And these inconsistencies don’t go unnoticed – other than the PRRT chilling investment into Australia, there was the warning from the Japanese Ambassador that when we are trying to secure liquid fuels from the people we supply gas to, while Foreign Minister Wong and the Prime Minister are negotiating to secure liquid fuel supply from other nations, the Treasurer is proposing this very poorly thought through tax.

In 2023, the Government changed the PRRT rules.

The Coalition was prepared to support these changes in exchange for regulatory relief for streamlined approvals; increased access to industry, research and development funding; and clarified consultation requirements for offshore oil and gas.

But, Labor ignored the Coalition, they ignored industry, and they ignored themselves, and capitulated to the Greens.

They voted against their own reforms. They voted against clarifying consultation laws that are being weaponised against your industry.

And now, are willfully abandoning your industry to the likes of the Greens and the Australia Institute.

Labor has admitted we are in a fuel and energy crisis, but we are also in an inflation crisis, a cost of living crisis and an interest rate crisis. Small businesses are closing in record numbers. Wages are low.

The answer is not new taxes that stifle investment and private-sector job creation.

And worse a tax in response to a very well co-ordinated activist campaign calling for a 25% tax on export gas.

Can I just ask how many of you know, what is the PRRT tax rate? It’s 40% – 40% after 90% of construction costs are depreciated. And that’s in addition to the corporate tax that every company is subject to.

How many of your employees and contractors would know that?

Gas Market Review

Whilst Labor is clearly considering higher taxes on the gas industry, another critical issue remains out of the public eye: the Gas Market Review and Government response.

In December last year, the Government hurriedly announced a ‘reservation’ policy.

Labor’s announcement does not address the root causes of this gas policy failure: a continued lack of investment in new supply by gas-reliant states, insufficient investment in critical gas infrastructure like storage and pipelines, and the repeated failed market interventions which have not brought down prices or secured supply, and undermined gas investment appetite.

And five months on from this, the Government still cannot describe how their reservation will get gas to where it needs to be.

They are only focused on talking about how to tax the gas industry more.

If it is popular social media-generated policy that the Albanese Government seeks to implement, then perhaps the relevant ministers should tell investors in Australia that in addition to bringing capital, complying with WHS, environmental compliance, and tax law that there should be a warning that they also need to provide their own social licence.

The Coalition stands in stark contrast to this.

Last week’s Gas Statement of Opportunity Outlook from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) painted a sobering picture about the urgent need to invest in gas here.

The Outlook noted the critical and ongoing role for gas generation – and the east coast gas shortfall was pushed out by 12 months, primarily because of the decisions of the New South Wales and Queensland governments to extend coal generated electricity in their states.

AEMO’s own report noted that the looming shortfall would have been sooner if not for the extension of existing coal generation, underscoring how important both new gas supply and existing reliable generation is to Australia.

The Coalition knows the importance of this sector, and we will deliver policies that secure reliable, affordable gas for homes, businesses and industry, while protecting Australia’s role as a trusted energy exporter.

We support locking in domestic supply with a prospective reservation policy developed in consultation with industry and trading partners.

But it is critical that this policy:

• guarantees meaningful supply for Australians;
• preserves existing contracts;
• protects contracts with our trading partners; and
• puts downward pressure on prices in our domestic market.

Further to this, we want to drive new gas exploration and development across key basins including Beetaloo, Narrabri, Barossa, Browse, Cooper and Scarborough – bringing significant new supply online.

Considered investment in these basins will ease pressures on our domestic gas market, and ensure Australia remains a reliable export partner.

Energy and gas policy are complex issues; the principles are not.

Less regulation, lower taxes, more exploration, more supply.

That is what will increase gas supply, stave off shortfalls, and bring down prices, and reinforce our position as a trusted energy exporter on the global market.

The Coalition understands this. Our policies are designed on these very principles.

But, Australians rightly have an expectation that they have access to affordable, reliable gas.

This is why smaller domestic gas producers are so critical to our energy mix.

Projects in South Australia, Victoria as well as Queensland are vital to ensuring that affordable gas is available to Australian businesses and households.

Projects close to market deliver affordable gas to where it is needed.

We can’t have projects like these shut down under layers of onerous regulation and poor policy.

If we stopped all our gas exports tomorrow, it would not avert any looming shortfalls.

It would not bring down gas prices in Victoria, or prevent manufacturers shutting their doors.

Smaller domestic-only producers are key to keeping the lights on – and we want to see more of them.

More in the Otway, the Cooper, and Narrabri.

More jobs, more growth, more wealth, more prosperity.

Foreign Activists

I know that getting new gas projects up and running currently is hard.

It is costly, uncertain, with opportunities to fail at every corner.

And to make things worse, there is an ever-growing chorus of ill-informed, anti-gas activists attempting to shut down your industry.

I have spoken at length about the real risks these groups present to Australia’s sovereign capability, and our prosperity.

Groups like the Environmental Defenders Office, who received millions in blind funding to pay off legal-fees after they confected evidence and coached witnesses in Federal Court.

Groups like the Australia Institute and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, who trumpet the need for openness and transparency, yet hide their funding behind vague “revenue” line-items in their Annual Reports.

Australia has some of the strictest political disclosure laws in the world – and it is something we should be proud of – but groups like the EDO, who actively campaign against the prosperity of Australia and projects of yours, are not subject to such laws.

I also note that the Conservation Council ACT is endorsed as a Deductible Gift Recipient and plans to host events for The National Rising Tide Book Club.

Rising Tide is a grassroots activist movement aimed at stopping oil and gas projects – and the Newcastle Weekly just reported that Rising Tide members allegedly vandalised a coal ship in Newcastle just last week.

So we have a Deductible Gift Recipient promoting the activities of and recruiting supporters for an activist movement, which means taxpayer funds could be supporting illegal activity like the People’s Blockade of the Port of Newcastle.

Is that acceptable?

Additionally, in 2014, the then Secretary-General of NATO said that the Russian Government was responsible for funding the anti-fracking campaign in the United Kingdom.

This campaign attempted to undermine the UK’s energy sovereignty and financial security, allegedly to increase Europe’s reliance on Russian energy sources.

This is not some plot from a thriller novel – this is a real and tangible threat to Australia’s prosperity.

These organisations, many of which operate under the protection of charity status, repeatedly act to undermine our sovereign capability.

They don’t create jobs, or build towns, or generate income to pay for our way of life. And most laughably, they don’t protect the environment.

The Labor Government’s response?

Forking out over $6.7 million in taxpayer funding to the EDO over the next few years.

If there was ever any doubt which side Labor were on, be very clear: not yours.

And I don’t seek to do anything more than see the same disclosure of funding for those who seek to change government policy – to be the same as for politicians. It’s about transparency.

Oil in the Bight

Global energy markets are facing uncertainty that hasn’t been seen since the oil crises of the 1970s.

With the instability in the Middle East, the shockwaves have been felt right around the world, and right around the country.

Regional communities are facing severe fuel shortages; miners are winding back operations; consumers are panic buying fuel because of cost of living pressures; and twenty per cent of global LNG exports have stopped moving.

This provides both a challenge, and an opportunity for Australia.

This crisis has exposed Australia’s reliance on international oil, and highlighted the flaws in the Government’s fuel security reserves and contingency planning protocols.

But, herein lies the opportunity.

Australia has the best resources in the world.

And we have the best expertise.

Right now, there is a promising new resource just waiting to be tapped.

The Officer, Arckaringa, Eucla and Bight Basins are some of the most promising oil and gas reserves in the world, and we should be doing more to unlock them.

In Government, the Coalition supported the proposed exploration projects in the Great Australian Bight, which were subject to stringent conditions by NOPSEMA.

Because we know that Australia can make its own energy independence safely and affordably.

Hundreds of oil and gas wells have been drilled safely around the coastline, generating thousands of jobs and tens of billions of dollars since the first offshore well was drilled in the Bass Strait in 1965.

These developments have supported the economies of Victoria and South Australia for generations.

It is as recently as 2005 that Australia was able to produce 90% of its domestic fuel requirements through light crude oil production.

And we have the opportunity to continue this economic growth into the future, whilst also delivering increased sovereign capability and energy security for the whole country.

We have had a long and successful history as being a reliable energy supplier to our trusted partners.

Fostering relationships with countries like Japan, South Korea and India, by providing them with some of the best energy resources in the world.

Japan has already called for additional Australian LNG to support its energy system.

The Japanese Industry Minister recently said that “For this unprecedented situation, the affordable and stable LNG supply from Australia is the lifeline of energy security in Japan and this region.”

And we should be able to supply that.

Opportunities for Australia

Whilst there remain many challenges facing Australia and our energy mix, there is still hope on the horizon.

As I have said, I have faith in the Australian spirit.

We have the best resources in the world. We have the ingenuity, the drive, and the knowledge to maximise them.

We should not be energy-reliant, but energy-independent. We should not be in the position that we are in – today – ever again.

We should be pulling every lever available to us: coal, gas, uranium, oil – and we can do that by drilling and digging what we have in abundance here.

Ensuring that we have enough energy to supply Australian households and businesses, and guarantee the most affordable energy in the world.

And then, continue to export our world-class resources to our key partners and allies so they can enjoy the energy-abundance we do.

Our vast energy resources can not only power the next generation of technological developments, but bring back a hyper-Australia.

One that builds things, creates things, powers things.

One that makes this great country lucky once more.

For the good of our children, and our children’s children.

We must unlock all of our energy resources to ensure that we can drive wealth and prosperity in our country.

Because it is thanks to all of you, the jobs you create, the businesses you support, the future you build.

That Australia can continue to thrive.